A Dangerous Regional Crossroad
By Nagi N. Najjar
Executive Director, Lebanese Foundation for Peace

The Lebanese have faith in their country; their vote will count tomorrow for success. We hope that August 5, 2007 will not be another 13th of April 1975 and should Hezbollah attempt to recreate this problem, Hezbollah will find the following result:
 
On the 13th of April 1975, a bus of Palestinian PLO gunmen of Arafat entered the Christian areas of Beirut in an act of defiance and intimidation and the Phalangist Party gunned them down, one by one, in the streets of a Christian neighborhood called Ain El Rummaneh.The results were 23 PLO fighters killed 32 years ago, this was the spark that triggered the civil war in Lebanon.
 
As of yesterday, the hotels of East Christian Beirut were being flooded by Syrians Nationals, naturalized with a Lebanese citizenship, granted by Michel el Murr when Lebanon was Syria 's ally in Lebanon . They all came in busses from Syria to vote in the Metn political election, to give Syria a victory and tip the balance in the Lebanese election Sunday, the 5th of August 2007.
 
Many clashes were reported in different parts of Mount Lebanon, between the Phalangist Party versus Syria 's allies, Hezbollah, the SSNP, and Michel Aoun's stupid, blind followers. Hezbollah erected a Huge Poster for the Party of God in the Christian heartland at Nahr El Kalb, the Phalangist Party followers went down and smashed it to pieces.
 
As of late last night, many Lebanese Phalangists were filling the magazines of their machine guns with bullets, preparing their hidden RPG's for the zero hour momentum. They say that tomorrow is the threat of 13th of April 1975 again. It is a day that will not reoccur and affect Lebanon 's independence and sovereignty except through blood.
 
We won't tolerate Hezbollah circulating arms in our Christian regions to support Michel Aoun's traitors and followers. We will not allow it and they will have a surprise tomorrow.
 
In our estimate, Aoun should be finished politically in the Christian arena today and declared finished in Lebanese politics. Unless, in contrast, if he wins the elections due to President Lahoud's involvement with Syria, Hezbollah, and the SSNP flooding naturalized Syrian nationals to vote in order, to create a national fraud, undermine President Gemayel's vote count, and elect a Syrian candidate, then the risk of a civil war will be very close.

The ground is boiling; Hezbollah is doing the opposite of it's statement that its arms will not be used internally. In conjunction with Syria and Iran, they are pushing the Christian community to a civil war, a civil war that Syria hopes for because by creating it, Syria hopes it can wash it's hands of its responsibility in assassinating Rafic Hariri, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon.
 
The Christians of Lebanon if pushed against the wall will spark a rebellion. There are arms in the streets and the situation doesn't need much to deteriorate and erupt.
 
Tomorrow is a day when Iran & Syria are attempting to stage a Coup d'Etat, using Hezbollah and General Michel Aoun against the United States's influence in the region and Lebanon's legitimate, elected Government and institutions. This Syrian/Iranian coup is supported by and executed by President Emile Lahoud and a portion of his security services.
 
Tomorrow is the "day" after the Gaza win by Hamas when Iran's President Ahmedinejad predicted Islamic victories from Damascus, after HAMAS, a terrorist organization supported by Damascus and Teheran toppled the Palestinian Authority of the moderate Mahmoud Abbas. It is a day for Iran and Syria, using their proxies on the ground, to defeat the Foreign Policy of the United States in the region, as it did in Gaza, by toppling the Government of Premier Siniora and paving the way for Syria to regain control of the Lebanese Presidency and Lebanon again.
 
Thanks to Ehud Baraq's first failure in the year 2000, and then with the weak Olmert Government's failure in the second Lebanon war, which reinforced Hezbollah iron grip over Lebanon, tomorrow is a day in which the normal Lebanese citizen will challenge Hezbollah with a brave NO in their votes, in a country controlled by terror. Many in Lebanon believe it is time for Baraq and Olmert in Israel to return to their homes, as they are the ones responsible for empowering Hezbollah to resume their threatening of the regional stage in the region and Lebanon . Many believe it is time for Israel to have solid military and political representation in order to challenge these regional threats and help a friendly Lebanon emerge and secure its northern border far from Hezbollah blackmail.
 
What will happen today in Lebanon 's Metn election does not involve the Lebanese alone or President Amine Gemayel versus an unbalanced Michel Aoun. It involves the United States not softening its position on Syria regionally for a illusionary promise of help on Iraq or a peace with Israel.

The US should not leave their allies in the middle of the road; Washington shouldn't allow Syria & Iran to extend their influence beyond Iraq and Gaza to destabilize Lebanon in order to constitute a regional insecurity that threatens the national security of the United States in the Middle East.
 
By supporting the rebellion in Iraq, smuggling missiles to Lebanon, hosting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Damascus is not seeking Peace with the US nor Israel. It is preparing the ground in conjunction with an upcoming nuclear Iran for the next coming war to inflict maximum damage on Israel and US interests in the region.
 
Damascus's actions require Israel to halt its "sit and watch" policy and reinstate its lost deterrence versus Iran's terrorist influence in the area. The debacles of the years 2000 and 2006 were enough of an example.
 
It is time for Jerusalem to interfere in Lebanon and reduce the Syrian/Iranian threat in that country. The Lebanese Police backed by Saudi Arabia and the US will not stop the arms smuggling from Syria, neither by counting on the powerless, UN Security resolutions, neither by bombing Lebanon's civilian infrastructure as in last year fiascoes, but by annihilating Hezbollah's weapons system along the Rockets & Missiles terror infrastructure on its territorial ground.
 
If Prime Minister Siniora is reluctant to join with Israel and prepare for regional security, others will take his place in Lebanon.
 
The dynamic of Peace will not come through Secretary of State Condi Rice's Peace Conference in the Middle East.

The upcoming show of deterrence between Israel versus Syria/Iran will define the Peace horizon and define the lines of new Middle East.
 
Don't give the Damascus /Teheran axis of evil a victory in Lebanon.
 
Israel will never reach a Peace momentum with Damascus by returning the Golan.
Whoever understands the Middle East, in the Syrian regime's survival lexicon, understands that Syria 's wish for peace simply doesn't exist.