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With1559	Naji - Very interesting about Iran. They seem to be very clever, the Iranians. Do you think that the US or Israel will bomb them soon to stop their nuclear drive? My fear is that might happen and then the Iran will unleash the Shia in Lebanon and there goes our Uprising. But if that happens and the Hezbollah reacts by shelling Israel, then the Hezbollah in the eyes of ALL Lebanese will be seen as a pure Iranian tool. Timing is important now. In the upcoming elections, the Parliament will be free from Syrian influence, then the new Parliament must enact a law that Hezbollah is not needed any longer since the south is no longer occupied and Shebaa belongs to Syria. Then Hezbollah must be disarmed and as President Bush invited them to do so and beocme a strict political party. Then if Iran is attacked, the effect on Lebanon will be minimal except maybe for a demonstration or two. What do you think?
Najjar	- Very interesting about Iran. They seem to be very clever, the Iranians. )))Clever enemy indeed, we cannot deny it at all. -Do you think that the US or Israel will bomb them soon to stop their nuclear drive? ))) something is going to happen, I don't know the timing neither the caliber of the hit, but things cannot stay where they are today. - My fear is that might happen and then the Iran will unleash the Shia in Lebanon and there goes our Uprising. ))) Dear friend, the uprising might count the majority of the Lebanese united, but it will have a limited effect against the instruments of terror .The dynamic of terrorism is a bigger dynamic and more complex to fight. It will not give up without blood and the peaceful urising was not meant to confront such a thing. -But if that happens and the Hezbollah reacts by shelling Israel, then the Hezbollah in the eyes of ALL Lebanese will be seen as a pure Iranian tool. ))) Should that happens,I don't know if Hezbollah will still be there. This won't be an internal Lebanese thing, it will become a regional event that will bring .........without elaborating. -Timing is important now. In the upcoming elections, the Parliament will be free from Syrian influence, then the new Parliament must enact a law that Hezbollah is not needed any longer since the south is no longer occupied and Shebaa belongs to Syria. ))) I hope these elections will take place . After the last Syrian soldier withdrawal from Lebanon due April 15th, Syria is going to deteriorate the security situation in the country to a critical stage in my view . These 4 bombings are nothing to what they intend to do in order to disrupt the elections, and prevent Lebanon stabilizing. Syria is not giving all this weaponery for nothing??? "Officially" , they will be out then, so they won't be blamed responsible, but the exercise doesn't stop there . -Then Hezbollah must be disarmed and as President Bush invited them to do so and beocme a strict political party. ))) Hezbollah won't disarm, it is only losing time to divert the momentum off Syria's back and waiting for Iran's instruction what to do regionally. Forget your Lebanese sentiments here that I respect, but the "raion d'etre" of Hezbollah when created was not for Lebanon, it was to serve the tactical and strategical interests of Syria and Iran in the ME. -Then if Iran is attacked, the effect on Lebanon will be minimal except maybe for a demonstration or two. What do you think ))) If Iran will be attacked, Hezbollah knows it will be his end also. The West will not attack Iran and kep Hezbollah, forget about that. I don't think Hezbollah will proceed to demonstrations, they will proceed to a guerilla style of warfare, conducting assassinations internally and externally (on the palestinian theater through Hamas and Islamic Jihad) and this will be their last bloody test for terror before being damaged in depht on their organizational level in Lebanon.Don't forget they will be operating in a changing climate situation, I am sure Syria will be it also on the way.It will not be Hezbollah alone, it will be the whole dynamic : Hezbollah, Palestinian camps, (groups allied to Iran and Damacus) ,SSNP, Tawhid,Baath party, everything will go in flame. It will be deadly and violent . I can't calculate the damages yet as I don't know in details both sides plans of action. This war should it happe will change the regional horizon with positive repercussions for Lebanon. I doubt Hezbollah will win it, but Hezbollah won't give up easy neither. There will be casualties and Nasrallah by refusing to disarm is taking the challenge against the West. These kind of actions will have a far reaching counter effects, lets wait and see to see how things will develop. Best,
With1559	Naji - Another bombing took place in Brummana over the weekend. Few people were hurt. I am trying to make sense from the fact that these bombings, although they are big and causing massive physical damage, they are being placed at night and during off-peak hours as to minimize human loss? This does not fit the behavior of Syria who likes to inflict many human losses as is evident in the past. Could someone else be placing he bombs or has Syrian tactics changed?
Najjar	-They are being placed at night and during off-peak hours as to minimize human loss? This does not fit the behavior of Syria who likes to inflict many human losses as is evident in the past. Could someone else be placing he bombs or has Syrian tactics changed? )))) These bombs are not meant to maximize human casualties . These bombs are political messages not to go foreword with the Hariri investigation indicting the 2nd, 3rd, 4th row of Syrian backed intelligensia who control the ground with its proxies , otherwise hell will break loose . The 2nd, 3rd row of Syrian Intelligence and their Lebanese allies are behind them. Should Assad or Lahoud start sending "people" to the investigation,(wich will never happen) this bombing serie will get heavier and escalate . The 2nd row of Syrian Intelligence(who control the ground in Lebanon) are going to see their brothers in the Arab cause, Hezbollah and the Palestinians , tell them if we're next, you will be next after us . Things are in the making, plans are brewing: 1- you might assist to a general security deterioration of the situation.(increase of car bombs as a diversion and instrument of pressure to destabilize the Lebanese arena) 2- You might assist to special campaign of assassination of Lebanese security chiefs and Syrians also to put the whole Hariri mud in their back and close this chapter. So, not casualties yet, it dosen't mean they won't be, or it is over yet or Syrian tactics have changed, at the contrary, we are today at the very early stage of a US-Syrian intelligence confrontation on Lebanese ground, we should wait and see when the moment of truth will come how things will evoluate . I suspect things will become mudy .
With1559	What is your opinion of the Israeli webpage "DebkaFile"; sometimes they report accurate stuff and other times they are rumors?? Today, they are reporting the next president of Lebanon will be Gen. Aoun as the French Candidate. I will not disguise myself as I am a supporter of the Imad and the Tayyar Movement but I can't, and Lebanon can't accept any instructions or mandates from abroad. If Gen Aoun is seen as being imposed by the French or the Americans, then nothing has changed. No different than Lahoud being imposed by Syria. We need to impose OUR own President. If we repeat the mistakes of the past then the conflict will re-emerge. Also, if Syrian troops depart in 30 days as promised, what is the next step in the liberation? Disarm Hizballah? That is a landmine? Maybe save it for last. But there are still armed Palestinians and Iranians on Lebanese soil? Maybe go into the camps and collect the weapons that threaten the sovereignty? Are the PLO in the camps tied to the PA in the West Bank? If Mahoumd Abbas tells them to disarm, will they do so? If not, I am sure in a week;s time the Lebanese army can sweep them.
Najjar	-What is your opinion of the Israeli webpage "DebkaFile"; sometimes they report accurate stuff and other times they are rumors?? ))) I read this article on Debka, I don't have anything more and could not confirm it until now from my side if this is true or not . If Aoun is willing to do the job, believe me, we have no objection, at the contrary, we will support him when the moment of truth will come. Having a "new" Lebanon will not be an easy undertaking . -Today, they are reporting the next president of Lebanon will be Gen. Aoun as the French Candidate. I will not disguise myself as I am a supporter of the Imad and the Tayyar Movement but I can't, and Lebanon can't accept any instructions or mandates from abroad. ))))) Dear friend, Lebanon cannot even survive without a support from "abroad" . It dosen't mean necessary getting "instructions", replace this word instead by strategy . As for the US and France pushing him for President, I suggest, lets wait and see. - If Gen Aoun is seen as being imposed by the French or the Americans, then nothing has changed. No different than Lahoud being imposed by Syria. ))))Don't look at it from this angle. Americans and French will not interfere with the Lebanese system the way Syrian Intelligence and politics do. - We need to impose OUR own President. )))I wish we are there. -If we repeat the mistakes of the past then the conflict will re-emerge. ))))We are witnessing a "bras de fer" between the US and Syria over Lebanon. Syria is weakened, but not finished .Yes, the conflict could be re-emerged unless a radical solution will be imposed , otherwise, it will explode at the end of the day. You just can't keep things standing the way they are,it is very dangerous, you know Lebanon better than me. -Also, if Syrian troops depart in 30 days as promised, what is the next step in the liberation? Disarm Hizballah? ))) We are not there yet . I understood there are some indirect US-Hezbollah talks under way to see what Hezbolah wants to do. -That is a landmine? Maybe save it for last. But there are still armed Palestinians and Iranians on Lebanese soil? Maybe go into the camps and collect the weapons that threaten the sovereignty? )))) That is why I am not a believer of this Satterfield State Department diplomacy between Lebanon and Syria. This is not the way to conduct business in Lebanon. The US will burn their fingers at the end of the day with this dynamic they are playing. -Are the PLO in the camps tied to the PA in the West Bank? )))) Most of the Palestinian camps are pro Arafat in Lebanon and pro PA, except the ones contolled by the PFLP-GC of Jibril, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, they are pro Iran, Syria and pro confrontation. If Mahoumd Abbas tells them to disarm, will they do so? )))) I doubt they will . -If not, I am sure in a week;s time the Lebanese army can sweep them. )))) I am sure too if there is a political green light for an operation of this kind. The Army is a good organized fighting force .
With1559	Thanks for the insight Naji. Appears things have quited down a bit now, maybe the eye of the storm. I want to ask one other question, since when did the French and American policies coincide in the ME? France and US never saw eye to eye whether on Lebanon, Iraq, Palestinian conflict, even Libya. I still remember when Reagan bombed Libya and the US aircraft that took off from England could not fly the direct route over France. Why all of the sudden France and America are sync'ing their strategies and policies. Also, yesterday I got sick in the stomach when I saw Jumblatt meeting Karami. What is up with this guy Jumblatt. I am sorry but I trust him as far as I can throw him. He flip flops too much and the Lebanese opposition has to be wary of him. I read an article recently that Saudis paid him off when he visited there. I just don't trust the guy.
Najjar	- I want to ask one other question, since when did the French and American policies coincide in the ME? Why all of the sudden France and America are sync'ing their strategies and policies. )))) The link is Saudi Diplomacy for the ME conflict resolution , a diplomacy active with Chirac and Bush .The Hariri's murder accelerated the issue between the US and France for a joint policy in the ME against what "Rustom Diplomacy" has done. The results? Check here this interesting article today on the JPost : http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1112754020410 -Also, yesterday I got sick in the stomach when I saw Jumblatt meeting Karami. )))) Do you expect him to be king more than the king, or follow Hariri in his footseps? The guy is doing fine despite few turnaround senarios, don't blame him, blame what the US side is doing in Lebanon allowing Hezbollah to bear arms. What kind of fight against terror is President Bush conducting? I suggest Bush should use French Diplomacy also to "negociate" with Bin Laden and Zarqawi to find a "political" role for them in the Arab world. This is what I call "State Department " diplomacy for the Middle East, a Department busy for all kinds of political bazars in the war against terror . If the US in the future will exit the ME with their "rear" beaten, don't be surprised, just thank the wonderful French Diplomacy. Chirac is an excellent diplomat of deception and the scary things with the Americans they always look into short terms politics and forget the reality around them , until another 9/11 will slap them in the face and wake them up again in an ugly fait accompli. Politics and Reality are two different dynamics in the US. This Administration should understand that terrorism in the Middle East should be eliminated,(Reality) not negotiated with(Politics).
With1559	French appeasement policy hasn't paid off for them as their nationals have been taken hostage in Iraq even as France was against the war. As you imply, terrorists do not have friends. As for the Party of God, they were made into giants by Baraq and Co. I am always amazed as how Israel goes to great lengths not to take hits from anyone and they always pre-empt their enemies with hits, but when it comes to Hizballah, the Israelis always appear weak and Hizballah calls the shots with them and always has the last word. I am sorry but I do not see them disarming without a fight. Even their junior leaders say if Israel withdraws fro m Shebaa, which is really Syrian, they will still hold onto their weapons. And Israel is willing to live with this status quo?? They supposedly have missiles that can hit Tel Aviv. I just don't understand.
Najjar	Dear friend, What is your understanding of Elias Zoghbi , (Aoun envoy) for his visit to Damascus 2-3 days ago . Do you have any input on this meeting?
With1559	Naji- let me state that I am a FPM supporter and not a spokesman. But I will attempt to answer your good question. When 16 years ago Gen Aoun started the War of Liberation, fate would have it that Saddam invaded Kuwait and the US gave Syria a green light to smash the Lebanese uprising. It is only ironic that Saddam's downfall is bringing back Gen Aoun to political life. The General's exile has not only humbled him but wisened him as well. As we discussed, he is being groomed to be the next Lebanese president. It is only natural that to ensure his success that he reach out and reassure Syria. Why? We live in a rough neighborhood, Naji and we are surrounded by two powerful states that we need to please. Whether we like it or not. It is not healthy to antagonize the Syrian regime as this regime has its own interests and is willing to eliminate any Lebanese president who does not take its interests into account (Bachir and Rene are examples). Syria is terrified of the notion that Lebanon go its own way and sign a peace treaty with Israel. Assad made no qualms about his intention of using his army in Lebanon as a bargaining chip to regain the Golan. Aoun is trying to reassure Syria that its interests(Golan) will be taken into account and once Syrian troops depart and Lebanese political prisoners are releases(Syria has promised to do so), then the new Lebanon will forgive and forget and establish warm ties with Syria based on an equal basis. Of course since Lebanon is small and weak, it can't be totally independent, i.e., Lebanon can't go its own way and sign a treaty with Israel but Lebanon can disarm Hizballah and secure the southern border. I myself is in favor of a peace treaty but the political reality may dictate that we have to wait. Also, Syria desires to keep the Lebanese market open to its unemployed workers. An you know Naji, as long as the arrogant Lebanese refuse to perform menial work in Lebanon, there will always be a market for the Syrian, the Sri Lankan and the Somali. It is as simple as that. The Syrian worker is to Lebanon what the Mexican migrant worker is to the US economy. Lebanese and Americans may complain about their presence but at the end of the day neither is willing to perform the work for the pay. In that respect, Syria need not worry. Anyways, this poor Syrian worker is not the threat to the Lebanese economy as the media indicates. The threat is "Mr. 5%" and "Mr 10%" of the Syrian Intelligence that tap into every contract the Lebanese state signs and steal billions from Lebanon with the consent of non other than Franjieh and Murr, famed Lebanese christians!! Naji, Assad Jr is not Assad Sr. Junior recently shook hands with Israel's president. Senior must be turning in his grave over that. Junior has pleaded with Israel to come back to the peace talks and was rebuffed. It is in Israel's best interest to seek peace with Syria as this will give Israel the lasting peace it so badly wants. And the side effect is peace for Lebanon. You know that more than any other person as your webpage has the flags of both Syria and Israel on it, with the Lebanese flag between them. It is unfortunate, but our fate is tied to interests of these big neighbors and we have to walk a tightrope and please Syria interest (Golan), and Israel's interest (Secure border). If we violate either, the hammer will come down on our heads.
LebanoCrate	شائعات خليوية! تلقت "النهار" امس رسالة الكترونية قصيرة بواسطة الهاتف الخليوي تفيد ان المسؤول الاعلامي في "التيار الوطني الحر" الياس الزغبي قد زار سوريا. فاتصلت "النهار" بالزغبي مستوضحة صحة الخبر فافاد انه تلقى سيلاً من الاتصالات المماثلة مما يعني ان ثمة جهة عمدت الى تعميم "الرسالة المضللة" ونفى نفياً قاطعاً هذا الخبر وادرجه في اطار "محاولة التشويش على عودة العماد ميشال عون التي يقف وراءها الذين ليسوا مرتاحين الى عودته". annahar