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Established to promote a lasting peace between Lebanon, Israel, and Syria. |
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Israel's North in Jeopardy
The potential exists for an escalation in the north to exacerbate into a regional conflagration that would include Syria. Reports have surfaced that HizbAllah has been entrenching its hold in south Lebanon, and establishing a Shiite entity from the Al-Awwali River in the north all the way to the border with Israel, and is preparing a confrontation and planning on firing long range katyushas at Israel and has Iranian Fajr-5 missiles capable of a range of 70 kilometers that would reach suburbs of the Israeli city of Haifa, the third largest in the country. Israel is well aware of the escalation in the North and the IDF has almost completed its deployment along the northern border, consisting of an electronic fence, security components for the border towns and villages, new outposts built along the border fence, and the installation of electronic means to collect intelligence in south Lebanese territory. During his recent visit to the B'abda Palace, David Hale, the charge d'affaires of the US Embassy in Beirut, conveyed to President Emile Lahhud the US Administration's displeasure over Lebanon's continuous refusal to deploy the army in the South. He also conveyed its displeasure over Lebanon's support for the resistance and its operations. He explained that this position would implicate Lebanon in terrorist activity and cause deterioration in the security situation in the region that would not serve the interest of Lebanon or the interest of peace in the region. Sources close to B'abda Palace revealed that David Hale conveyed to President Emile Lahhud a fresh warning from Ari'el Sharon who told the US Administration that he no longer can accept the presence of Hizballah and its missiles in the South. Sharon told the US Administration that Hizballah threatens the security of the settlements and the tourism resorts in northern Israel. He called on the United States, France, Britain, and the EU, to exert pressure on the Lebanese Government to send the army to the South and remove Hizballah's missiles. If it fails to do that, he will use military force to remove them and destroy Hizballah's camps in the South, Al-Biqa', and everywhere else in Lebanon. Hale expressed the belief that Washington might take some economic measures against Lebanon, if it does not carry out these steps, which could have serious security consequences in the future and affect US-Lebanese relations. David Sutterfield, US deputy assistant secretary of state for Middle Eastern affairs, visited Beirut and held talks with President Emile Lahhud, Speaker Nabih Birri, and Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri. During these talks, he explained to them the dangers and repercussions of the fragile security situation in the South. He also explained the effects of the continued presence of Hizballah in the border region on peace and security along the joint Lebanese-Israeli border. The US Administration advised Lebanon to stop provoking Israel, as the means for American pressure on Ari'el Sharon are limited. Sutterfield warned that any new operation by Hizballah in Shab'a Farms or any other area behind the blue line could ignite a war between Israel and Lebanon and Syria. This war could shatter all the economic measures the Lebanese Government is trying to implement to end its severe financial crisis. These warnings by the U.S. are reinforced by U.S. actions that send a clear message that the U.S. Administration no longer believes that the Desert Storm coalition will ever be restored. Bashar al Assad's father Hafez would never have allowed Syria to fall from the image of a potential U.S. partner to that of an adversarial role as that bodes poorly for Syria. This display of political amateurism by Syria's present president is a cause of friction within the ruling hierarchy in Syria and foreshadows the breakup of the Syrian government and, of course, its stranglehold on Lebanon. Lebanese unrest is reenforced by the recent Nazi style adventurism of the puppet Lebanese government in its never ending role of abusing the rights of its Christian minority, resulting in an active Christian underground, bolstered by opponents of the Syrian-Lebanese clique, who plan on an uprising to free Lebanon and transform it into a free and sovereign nation. While Bashar al Assad attempted damage control with his announcement that Syrian forces had redeployed in the Beirut area, the reality is quite different. Reports from eyewitnesses confirm that Syria is propping up its military might in Lebanon and bringing in heavy weapons and well armed military forces to Beirut to assist in destroying the Christian protests and to head off a military confrontation with Christian freedom fighters. Bashar al Assad is fully aware of Syria's forthcoming problems but hasn't the diplomatic and political skills of his father and plunges ahead with a simplistic, military solution to Lebanese unrest that can only exacerbate the situation even further. One example of Bashar's amateurism was a media official with the Baath Party in Lebanon who reported Sunday that four pro-Syrian parties would serve as a militia to "defend the Lebanese Army." Speaking at an open meeting in Nabatieh, Abdel-Amir Abbas said that "we, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the Amal Movement and Hizbullah will be a militia to defend the Lebanese Army." The meeting was attended by Jihad Jaber, who represented Nabatieh MP Yassin Jaber, Nabatieh Mayor Adham Jaber, and several of the area's leading figures. "Lebanon has avoided a plot that targeted the whole system," Abbas said, in reference to claims by the security authorities that Israel was conspiring with anti-Syrian Christian activists. "In fact, there was a plot aiming to undermine the process of civil peace," Abbas added. Meanwhile, the U.S. is not sitting quietly and the U.S. Air Force reported Aug. 15 that an F-16 patrolling Iraq accidentally flew through Syrian airspace." The 23 minutes that the alleged "accidental entry" lasted, are much longer than the time needed by the US monitoring equipment at the nearby Turkish Incirlik airbase to determine the plane's location and caution the pilot. The actual mission of the aircraft was to closely monitor an old rail line running from Iran through Iraq and onto Syria as reports of large numbers of military equipment and personnel shipped from Iran to Syria by night has surfaced and now is verified. This equipment consists of huge amounts of conventional arms as well as unconventional weapons that are certain to destabilize the region as many will be deployed in Lebanon. Among the many weapons shipped are quantities of the Fajr 5 missiles that endanger Israel. Military analysts question if Israel can withstand a missile attack launched from Lebanon without attacking both Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Iran is quietly increasing its military presence in Lebanon with approval and coordination from Syria who indirectly is subordinate to the Shiite leadership in Tehran. Reports from Lebanese intelligence sources tell of a political storm that occurred in Damascus after Israel's bombardment of the Syrian radar site in Dahr al-Baydar.The "young Turks" in Damascus were particularly upset as they felt that Syria lost face in the Middle East and it reflected poorly on the Syrian regime who depends on a strong image to keep Lebanon in subjugation. Quietly, high ranking members of the Syrian regime went to Tehran to seek guidance and assistance that resulted in Fajr-5 missiles deployed in the Shab'a Farms with the missiles under the control of Iranian experts because they require a level of expertise and accuracy that is not available to Hizballah. Additionally, Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon were reported in Lebanon and present a threat though the Iranian Embassy in Beirut denied the report. Other reports from Lebanese intelligence is of training Syrian cadres in computer skills in Yanta and Janta, by officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards under the supervision of the Syrian intelligence service, which denies access to these villages by any party, including the Lebanese security authorities. Janta and Yanta is a terrorist den used by Syria and Iran and frequent visitors are by Sudanese, Algerian, Egyptian, and Gulf individuals from Bahrain's Hizballah and groups receiving terrorist training who are affiliated with Osamah Bin-Ladin. Pointing out the inexperience of Syria's new President Bashar, analysts say he went too far in challenging the Israelis and provoked them into a confrontation with Syria, an event that would not have taken place had the late President Hafiz al-Asad been alive. Realizing his difficulty, Bashar Al-Assad sent Syrian Defense Minister General Mustafa Talas who paid two secret visits to both Russia and Iran and in Iran met with senior officials in the Defense Ministry and the Revolutionary Guards. They agreed to respond through HizbAllah, not directly because a direct response means a Syrian-Israeli war, whose outcome would not be guaranteed for Syria. Shortly after, a delegation from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards visited Damascus, led by Hoseyn Rezai, cousin of the former Revolutionary Guard Commander Mohsen Rezai, who came to Lebanon in 1982 to supervise the training of Hizballah cadres in Ba'labakk. Finishing their meeting, the seven member delegation, accompanied by Syrian Defense Minister Talas, traveled to Janta and Yanta in Lebanon's Al-Biqa Valley, where PKK camps belonging to Abdallah Ocalan were then based and where training camps for HizbAllah and other terrorist groups are now located. Hizballah and Syria directly supervise these camps. The groups include Sudanese, Egyptian, Algerian, and Gulf individuals from Bahrain's Hizballah as well as groups affiliated with Osamah Bin-Ladin. This region is isolated and free from any Lebanese security presence. A nearby paved road leads to the border village of Al-Hulwah, home of Lebanese Deputy Faysal al-Dawud and controlled by a roadblock directed by Syrian intelligence. These devices effectively kept Lebanese authorities away from and unaware of the visit, and they did not participate in meetings with the Syrians and Iranians. The delegation subsequently returned to Damascus where they summoned some Hizballah leaders to reveal their conclusions to the Syrians and Iranians. Deputies Muhammad Ra'd and Ammar al-Musawi and Hizballah Deputy Secretary General Na'im Qasim visited Damascus and they agreed to receive eighty Iranian experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, led by Hoseyn Rezai, to Lebanon to begin training on new weapons and allow them operate these weapons to avoid any error. They agreed to supply the guards with Fajr-5 missiles. Eighty experts from the Revolutionary Guards arrived in Damascus in May and they spent two nights meeting with senior officers in the Syrian Army and intelligence. Later they moved to Janta and Yanta on the Lebanese-Syrian border, which is free from any customs office, public security forces, or any Lebanese security forces. The missiles did not travel with the delegation and arrived 10 days later. Rezai later moved to Ba'labakk, where he met with Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, who became a frequent visitor. Rezai later moved to Beirut's southern suburb and Shab'a Farms to conduct a survey of the area. Rezai then returned to Tehranand discussed the issue of dispatching the Fajr-5 missiles to the Shab'a Farms. Fifty four missiles arrived at Damascus International Airport in June aboard a private plane that also carried officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, led by Rezai. The disassembled missiles were moved to south Lebanon and the Iranians reassembled the missiles near Shab'a but did not deploy all of them.. After Rezai returned to Tehran via Damascus, the missiles were not given to HizbAllah but to the Revolutionary Guards as Hizballah did not have the necessary expertise required for the missiles and because Rezai preferred the Iranian missile experts. According to the Iranian officers, they refused to give the Syrians information on the missiles and also refused to let the Syrians supervise the operation of these missiles. Under political circumstances only involving the use of the missiles against Israel will the Syrians be allowed to supervise these missiles. Also confirmed is that the eighty Iranian Revolutionary Guards present in Lebanon travel around Yanta and Janta, where the main training takes place, Ba'labakk, Brital, Al-Nabi Shit, the southern suburb, and Shab'a Farms. Some of them travel in Syrian military vehicles marked "Army" as far as the southern areas, where they inspect the borders. |
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