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The Meaning of Lebanon 's Election
By Patrick Seale
Lebanon’s parliamentary elections of 7 June are an important symbol of national revival. The country is back on its feet as a vibrant and resilient pluralistic society. It is sending
a message of reconciliation and democracy to a region still ravaged by unresolved conflicts and still largely in the grip of authoritarian regimes.
The elections have been remarkably well organised by international
standards by the work of Interior Minister Ziad Baroud, assisted by Lebanon ’s own Supervisory Commission. The run-up to the poll has seen vigorous campaigning by competing parties, each backed by a vociferous TV station.
Voting will take place in a single day -- thus reducing the possibility of fraud and vote-rigging -- with results promised promptly by midday on 8 June.
The European Union has provided technical and financial support, as
well as a team of monitors. Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter will also be there, together with a team of observers from his Carter Centre.
Lebanon is thus resolutely turning the page after decades of civil war, of
repeated Israeli invasions, massacres and prolonged occupation, of a long-running (but now largely resolved) dispute with Syria, of sectarian conflict, and of a rash of political assassinations, of which the most devastating
was that of the former premier, Rafiq Hariri, in 2005.
These traumas have left an inevitable legacy of bitterness, which cannot be dispelled overnight. There are numerous problems to be resolved, not least the future of
the 300,000 stateless Palestinian refugees, still living in camps in Lebanon and deprived of basic human rights. But the Lebanese are anxious to put war and violence behind them.
No doubt, the emergence of U.S. President
Barack Obama on the international scene -- with his message of dialogue and reconciliation -- has greatly contributed to Lebanon ’s expectation of a better future. If Obama manages to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, as he
has vowed to do, this much-tried region could enjoy a new era of peace and prosperity.
While it is rash to predict the outcome of any democratic election, one unmistakable trend of recent years -- which is likely to be
carried further forward in the 7 June elections -- is the full integration into Lebanon’s political life of the Shi‘a community, under the leadership of the resistance movement Hizbullah. Having long suffered deprivation and
exclusion, and as the principal victims of Israel ’s repeated aggressions against Lebanon , the Shi‘a have steadily advanced in recent decades to the front of the political stage.
Electoral statistics show that 702
candidates will be competing for 128 seats in 26 districts. But Lebanon is a mosaic of (sometimes warring) religious sects and confessions, each demanding its representation in parliament. Following an accord brokered by Qatar
in May 2008, an electoral law passed on 29 September 2008 established equal representation for Christians and Muslims in Parliament, with the following distribution of seats:
Maronite Christian 34; Greek Orthodox 14;
Greek Catholic 8; Sunni Muslim 27; Shi‘a Muslim 27; Druze 8; Armenian 6; Alawite 2; Protestant 1; Other Christians 1.
Two main political coalitions dominate the electoral scene, the March 14 Alliance , which at present
holds 70 seats and the opposition March 8 Alliance , with 58 seats. Each is named after a massive rally which its supporters held in Beirut following Rafiq Hariri’s murder in 2005.
The March 14 Alliance comprises Saad
Hariri’s (Sunni) Future Movement, the (Christian) Lebanese Forces and other Christian factions, and Walid Jumblatt’s majority Druze group.
The opposition, March 8 Alliance comprises Hassan Nasrallah’s (Shi‘a) Hizbullah
and its principal partners: Nabih Berri’s Amal party (also Shi‘a), the (Christian) Free Patriotic Movement of the Maronite General Michel Aoun, and Talal Arslan’s minority Druze group. This opposition alliance could improve its
position in parliament by winning some half a dozen seats.
Lebanon’s election looks promising, but the country cannot escape from its troublesome environment. Its future will largely depend on factors beyond its control.
These factors include the following: whether Israel will choose at last to live at peace with its neighbours, rather than to seek to dominate them by force. The emergence of Israel ’s right-wing government and the IDF’s massive
five-day military exercise next week are not welcome developments.
Also highly relevant for Lebanon’s future is whether Arab states can bring their debilitating “Arab Cold War” to a close; whether rival Palestinian
factions can put an end to their suicidal feuding; and whether the Islamic Republic of Iran can be drawn peacefully into a regional security structure.
Needless to say, a great deal will depend on the outcome of the
brave political initiatives which Barack Obama -- a truly visionary American president -- has launched.
Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also,
Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.
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