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Wednesday, September 17, 2008 
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Ukraine's Pro-Western Ruling Coalition Collapses
Tehran Times

KIEV (AFP) -- The governing coalition in Ukraine collapsed on Tuesday in a crisis brought on by Russia's war with Georgia that raises the prospect of the country being knocked off its pro-Western course.

“I officially announce the collapse of the coalition of democratic forces,” parliament speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk told lawmakers.

“I would not call this an apocalypse. It is a challenge for democracy, but I hope we will overcome this challenge together,” he said.

Less than four years after President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko united in the “Orange Revolution” against a Moscow-backed presidential candidate, their political marriage lies in tatters.

Tensions between the president and prime minister came to a head last month following Russia's war with Georgia, with Yushchenko's allies accusing Tymoshenko of “high treason” for not supporting Georgia enough.

Tymoshenko has rejected the charge, saying she is no Kremlin ally.

Meanwhile European officials have warned Ukraine could be the next target for interference by Russia because of the high proportion of Russian-speakers and tensions over Russia's Black Sea fleet, based in southern Ukraine.

The prime minister is now expected to resign and start trying to build a new coalition, possibly with the pro-Russian Regions Party, which is led by Orange Revolution loser and former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Tymoshenko is expected to continue functioning as prime minister until the formation of a new cabinet, which must happen within 30 days -- by mid-October. After that date, Yushchenko can call new elections.

The political crisis began when Yushchenko pulled his Our Ukraine party out of the coalition on September 3 after Tymoshenko sided with the pro-Moscow opposition to pass new laws trimming the president's powers.

Yushchenko bitterly described the vote against him as a bid by Tymoshenko to establish a “dictatorship” and complained of a parliamentary “coup.”

Tymoshenko in turn accused the president of having “destroyed” the governing coalition by pulling out of the alliance with her party.

Fresh parliamentary elections would be the third such vote in two years for Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that faces huge economic and social problems and where the political scene has been riven with infighting for years.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were the icons of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution and have each been considered Western-leaning politicians despite persistent and sharp disagreements on domestic political issues.

The political crisis comes ahead of a key presidential election due in 2009 or 2010, which is expected to pit Yushchenko against both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych and will be closely watched in Western capitals.

Ukraine is a key transit country for Russian gas exports to Europe.

The crisis has set back Ukraine's NATO and EU aspirations as well as raising eyebrows in Washington. U.S. officials badly want Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to work together to bring the ex-Soviet nation out of Russia's orbit.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney urged unity during a visit to Kiev earlier this month as he toured the region trying to bolster America's ex-Soviet allies following Russia's war with Georgia.

That conflict and the ensuing fallout have served as a reminder that Russia finds it hard to stomach NATO or EU encroachment eastwards into what it sees as its historic sphere of influence.

People in the southeast of Ukraine are mainly Russian-speaking, while those in the northwest predominantly speak Ukrainian and are more oriented towards integration with the West.

Yushchenko last month earned Russia's wrath by imposing restrictions on the Russian navy. Under a long-term lease arrangement, Russia's Black Sea fleet is based at Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean coast until 2017.

Yushchenko was swept to power by the peaceful protests of the Orange Revolution, which forced a re-run of a presidential election that Yanukovych was widely accused of rigging.

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