|
Seven Years After 9/11
How Dangerous Is Al-Qaida?
Reuven Paz, Israel: "A Worldwide Model for Both Terrorism and Insurgency"
Spiegel On Line
Reuven Paz, Director of the Project for the Research of Islamist Movements in Herzliya, Israel.
Looking back seven years since 9/11, it seems that the original al-Qaida, or Qa’idat al-Jihad, has
managed to fulfill a great part of its short-range goals. The group’s leadership is still active and at large; it managed to turn Iraq into a worldwide model for both terrorism and insurgency; it shifts
from Iraq quite successfully toward Afghanistan and West Pakistan, regained some power in North Africa , Somalia , and Yemen ; and hot-wired the imagination of a growing class of
self-radicalized Muslim youth. Above all, the use of martyrdom operations is still its most effective weapon in its efforts to achieve symmetry with the "enemy." A sense of the apocalypse is still the
strongest element to inspire and mobilize many would-be terrorists.
Nevertheless, there was no progress in achieving its main long-term goals. Not one Muslim
government in general, or Arab government in particular, was toppled or even much affected by jihadist activity. So far, after seven years, the world in general and the Muslim world in particular
has learned to live with the jihadist phenomenon. Al-Qaida and the messages of global jihad remain a tiny minority in the enormous Muslim world. Its sting may be felt almost anywhere in the
world, but it is nothing but a sting. A small war in Georgia may shake up world geo-politics more than a major al-Qaida attack.
Is the organization stronger than it was seven years ago? Yes, because it is still highly motivated, has a free hand in spreading its doctrines and messages through the Internet and can still mobilize
support. The rest of the world has not yet found efficient answers to confront this high motivation. Al-Qaida, directly or through loyal proxies, may yet repeat the disastrous attacks of 9/11, with
even greater effect or damage. It is not likely to happen on American soil, however, but against global American and Western interests -- probably oil fields or international aviation. Through a
"war of the minds," which will continue for a long while, al-Qaida can inflame hatred and exaggerate imaginary victories, even kill and maim people, mostly Muslims, but it can't establish
real power, even in the Muslim world. The latter is still not ready for revolution or major change.
It seems that al-Qaida's main transformation as a movement is toward "soft power" from the
"hard power" of terror and violence. Yet we should take it seriously, because it might become a source of power in the far future, primarily among Muslim communities outside of the Muslim
world, where the search for change is vivid.
Reuven Paz directs the Project for the Research of Islamist Movements in Herzliya, Israel .
|
